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Monday, November 24, 2008

coping with bad times - citibank + US car ind + misc

just saw news saying that e US gahmen just pumped in billions to save citibank..
no wonder have been receiving email from citibank written by CEO of citibank s'pore recently

frankly speaking it came as a surprise cos i thought GIC invest billions into citibank and thought it should be all right.. then i also thougth US govt is prepared not to intervene anymore cos the rescue of the 2 mortgage co + AIG alr put a heavy strain on e govt's coffers

anyway me n my econs frens have been discussing abt e bailout issue a few mths back n we all agree that ben bernanke - chairman of fed reserve is not practicing what he teaches leh.. in his textbook which we studied in macro 1 he advocate cold turkey treatment to the failing companies but look wat's he doing right now..

but i can also empathise his position..
in e financial world, there is this term known as 'too big to fail' n being a Great Depression expert, i trust that he know what's he doing..
the main reason why great depression is lasted for 3 yrs n hence got e honour of being great is precisely cos e govt allowed bank run to occur + impose tariff on imported goods.

w bank run, it erodes the ppl's confidence and ppl will start putting money under e pillows instead of putting in banks.. then banks will lose one major n cheap source of funds aka deposits to lend out to borrowers n also to pay up ST debts.. also due to e fact that most of e banks' assets is locked up in illiquid assets, it will be tough for banks to raise cash in such a short notice.. if ppl keeps withdrawing money from banks n put under their pillows/mattress etc instead, the liquidity positon of e bank will only get worse (no cash to pay debts + no cash to lend to earn $$) and hence eventually fall..
n e trigger effect is not to be dismissed either.. banks are interdependent hence if one fails, then others are not in much better position either.. furthermore, banks are e backbone/foundation of e economy (facilitating the much needed cashflow to e rest of e economy) that's why we always say that banks are 'too big to fail'.
that maybe why fed reserve is taking drastic action and going all out to save banks now..

however, e US gahmen is equally hesitant of helping out e car ind.. i know some ppl may wonder why but i back e US gahmen stand cos i personally find that e US car companies have only themselves to blame for the awakard position they are in right now. why do i say that?

just 2-3 yrs back, GM - General Motors is the num 1 car manufacturer in e whole world and is among e top 5 companies in e Forbes top 100 companies.. within this short time span, it is now on e verge of bankruptcy.. who would have believe it in e 1st place?

i feel that complacency + X inefficiency contributes to e downfall of these US car companies..
for yrs GM is e num 1 car co in US.. i dunno why but toyota, honda etc these big names of jap car din go into e US mrkt in full force since US is e largest car mrkt..
but when they did in a big way sometime in 2005/6, their cars is a big hit among US consumer cos of e cheaper price + higher fuel efficiency. but e GM etc remains nonchalant cos they claim they are not competing on e same level aka fighting among e same grp of consumers, they are targeting e families that have a higher need of bigger cars eg SUV and din bother to change e way they operate, eg improving the design outlook of their cars, reduce price to attract more orders, produce more fuel efficient cars etc.. n result? they are losing ground every yr to e jap cars as evidenced by e num 1 title being taken over by toyata in 2007.

i guess e last straw came when e oil price spiked to new heights this yr, w e petrol price hitting US$4/gallon US consumers shun cars like SUV for their high fuel consumption such that e sales for these vehicles drop dramatically and hence leads to e current crisis. e failure to change with time n innovate is what brings these companies to their knees.. n to think that they view it as a right that e govt bail them out.. maybe cos they thought they are also 'too big to fail' n have e backing of e govt so that's why they took e easy route out instead of the painful restructuring path ba

but let me say that im not a car ind expert, im merely analyse e situation from e econs point of view hence these are merely my views n i recognise that some of my opinions may be simplistic/not factual. nevertheless from e whole 'saga', it is clear that econs theory holds largely true in reality.. compeition is what get things going.. even if u r e num 1 now, so long as u dun innovate/keep abreast of e new situation/technology/trend, u shall perish.. its simply survival of e fittest.. applies to both human n companies..

all these bad news are prompting e newspaper to feature on money savings tips/ companies that do well in bad times.. like in today's article, they feature This Fashion, Pink Beauty.
must agree that This Fashion is cheaper, but not tt cheap also leh.. a decent top w not too bad quality also cost ard 20+, its better w e ongoing discount but still e price doesnt look attractive.. n u also nid to dig so quite for long before u see somthing u like.. maybe Coax (a brand under This Fashion) is better but e prices are also correspondingly higher..

my faves:
clothes - taiwan auction sites esp Mayuki, JJS.
quality is comparable to This Fashion or even better @ cheaper prices!! plus e designs are better/more unique/not-as-boring too!
but nid to join sprees to get them cos they will require overseas order to be min 15 pieces & shipping cost will be borne by buyer. but still, e prices will more often than not, below S$20

bags - Perlini, Inspired bags, Taiwan sites eg PG Mall & Bigi
granted, i quite like $10 bags (loved them in uni) but ever since i started work, these bags are too causal for work purpose le so i make a switch. will at times buy branded bags to pamper myself too. one area i dun mind spending more $$ on.
Visit spree communities for inspired bags - these are branded-lookalike bags that is of good quality and in e range of $40-60. w e quality at times even better than what is sold at e departmental store, i'm 2nd handing it =D
if not can shop at e taiwan auction sites too, most bags going for under S$15 but w shipping at S$4 per bag perhaps u can buy when u r in taiwan instead.. hee.. though e total price can still be considered cheap.

accessories - sprees
i haven been looking at accessories for quite some time le..
cos 1. i got too much accessories liao, 2. e designs ava in spore right now are more or less e same n somehow just din catch my fancy (it can also be cos i got too mani earrings/necklace until my taste become picky.. haha), 3. e price range of e nicer ones are out of my consideration (im not e kind of person that will spend $20+ on a pair of earrings)
sprees, as i recently discovered, offers some unique designs below $10 (its mostly $5-7) @ decent quality too ^^

shoes - Charles n Keith, URS
seems like its a challenge to find cheap n nice shoes nowadays leh.. anyone got any recommendations?
but w discounts thrown in, Charles n Keith & URS offers some veri good buys

watches - $5 watches @ Bugis Village, Swatch/Guess/Fossil/Espirit/DKNY
this is another area i dun mind spending more/buying branded..
got a mixture of watches, from e super cheap ones ($5 each) to Swatch/Guess but still not prepared to fork out more than $300 for one yet.. =P

skincare, cosmetics & toiletries - Red Tomato @ AMK, John Little Sales, shops @ people park hawker centre, sprees
straits times mention pink beauty, but i din realli go there but visit red tomato more often..
all in all, to get bargain prices, u either need to go source or wait n i assure u that e price differences u get to save is realli worth e effort.
if u are afraid e quality of parallel imported goods (i believe those goods @ people park are), u can go for john little. become their member for free n get invited to exclusive members events n enjoy more discounts!! i once bought Za skincare pdts there @ ard 40% off!!
if not, do stock up when u r in jap/south korea (for brands like the face shop, Kose)!! over there its abt 30% to 40% lower than e retail price in spore. spree can be another option but dunno how much cheaper it will be if you factor in shipping cost
cant comment for european/US brands cos never been to these countries so dunno how much cheaper is it over there but looking at how hot n regular sprees that are held to buy pdts from these countries (eg drugstore, bath and body works, benefit etc) are, perhaps one can consider buying thro sprees.

masks - definitely sprees, brands like Danity Design, My Beauty Dairy and Xin Ji Mei Ren are hot faves!
used to like TFS masks and then realise e abv brands are much cheaper..
masks din have instant effect on me so i just treat it as regular maintainence so these masks do a pretty good job at that + it help me save lotsa $$ too! cos each mask cost between $0.90 to $1.50 as compared to TFS masks tt's going 3 for $10/12.
one word of advice, do compare price even if u r shopping at sprees cos e price different organisers offer do differ too.
but best is go stock up when u go Taiwan!!!
I heard of someone buying 200 pieces of My Beauty Masks back from Taiwan!

perfume - shops @ Lucky plaza
how does a 50% discount over retail price sounds to u?
i know ppl have been saying abt fake, adding water to perfume, inferior quality (not long lasting) etc..
i also worry abt fakes so i went to stores recommended by my frens but personally feel that adding water to perfume quite impossible + e conc will get diluted n makes it more obvious to consumers that its fake so who will do it?
quality wise, cos perfume is make up of chemicals n chemicals react w chemicals (eg sweat on our body) n this affects e length of time that the perfume stays.. an urban myth, i wld say

stationeries - a shop @ Fu Lu Shou Complex basement 1
prices are cheaper than Popular. know that are other stores at other locations too but this is e one i frequent cos its near to my office..

hmm, that's abt all..
i guess it can be deduced that i seldom shop in shops le..
clothes, bags, accessories, masks all done online..
dun buy stationeries cos got too mani..
only buy perfume/watches (e ex ones) ard once a yr..
so basically when i go out shopping, i either go window shopping or only looking out for shoes n skincare/toiletries.. think its tough for spore retailers to earn my $$$.. lol..
can also see that i dun buy groceries/fresh food often. its usu done by my mum but i do know snacks wise, go Sheng Siong =P
cant think of any more category of things i will buy on a regular basis le..